Sometimes, in science and technology, studying and incorporating the past can offer insight into the future. Two longtime researchers in the area of climate variability, George Mason University’s David Straus and University of Virginia’s Kevin Grise, saw a specific opportunity to conduct a number of experiments to utilize historical weather data and the latest version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) to better understand the development and movement of mid-latitude storms in the Atlantic. CESM2 is a state-of-the art weather and climate model developed and maintained by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).


Straus and Grise were interested in better understanding the paths of extratropical cyclones — large rotating weather systems that occur in the extra-tropics (between 30° and 60° latitude) that are responsible for much of the variations in weather across midlatitudes. Their focus is the Atlantic storm track, which extends from the east coast of North America toward Europe and has an important influence on the weather in Virginia. For this project, the not-well-understood role of diabatic heating in shaping the evolution of the cyclones was of particular interest.
Diabatic heating is the heating or cooling of the atmosphere due to processes that involve the transfer of heat between the system and its surroundings, including heat released or absorbed during phase changes of water (“latent heating”), radiative heating and heat transfer through contact. This is a specialty of both researchers.
Straus explains, “Global climate models commonly struggle with representing key aspects of the extratropical Atlantic storm track, including its intensity and orientation. One hypothesis that has gotten recent attention is that diabatic heating generated as part of weather systems plays an important role. Within the warm air sector of a typical cyclone, ahead of the cold front, lies the warm conveyor belt where warm, moist air is transported poleward and upward. This results in a broad region of latent heating from condensation.”

Straus and Grise recognized that collecting and integrating the data would be a tall order, requiring a healthy dose of scientific elbow grease. They believed that with the help from George Mason University research faculty member Erik Swenson — an expert in the configuring and running of state-of-the-art climate models — much of the heavy lifting could be done successfully and cost efficiently using graduate students. The additional benefit of this approach would be affording the students a unique opportunity for hands-on experiential research in the field.
Straus proposed to 4-VA that the study would deliver important insights for weather prediction in Virginia – and beyond. (Straus, Grise and Swenson volunteered their time on the project.) The 4-VA Advisory Board supported the proposal, and the project was funded.
With that, Straus, in George Mason’s Atmospheric, Oceanic & Earth Sciences Department and Grise, in UVA’s Department of Environmental Sciences, put their team to work. They began by running intervention experiments for 20 winter seasons — 2000/2001 through 2019/2020. For each season, the CESM model was initialized using the observed state of the atmosphere and ocean on November 1 and integrated until the end of March with the model configured to save detailed information every six hours of simulated time. Analysis of the output of the runs focused specifically on the overall strength and paths of the storms and on details of the diabatic heating not normally analyzed.
To accomplish this feat, it was up to Swenson and George Mason graduate students — Noah Blanco-Alcala, who set up the control CESM climate simulations at NCAR, and Heidi Nsiah, who ran CESM forecasts from climate simulation initial conditions at NCAR — to get it done.
Nsiah reflects on her role in the project, “Being introduced to this research on storm tracks has truly broadened and sharpened my skills. I’ve learned not only how to write and edit scripts, but also how to set up and run control experiments, specifically CESM, which has strengthened my confidence in handling computational work. I’ve also learned how storm tracks are diagnosed, and moving forward, I hope to carry out meaningful analyses that will help generate hypotheses for future research.”
The team will present their research at the January 2026 American Meteorological Annual Meeting. Additionally, their future plans also include expanding their study with external grants. “We believe that this data will be very helpful for CESM moving forward, and will improve our fundamental knowledge of how storm tracks work,” notes Straus. “We recognize that there is a lot of room for more work in this area of science.”































